Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7dee…f86e sports 303 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+7%) realized +$28 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%154W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$14
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$16
other 9% +$10
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.2% -8.5% 48% 48% -2.5%
≤30d 106 +19.0% +7.7% 55% 55% +6.3%
≤90d 295 +7.8% -2.4% 52% 52% -3.6%
all 295 +7.8% -2.4% 52% 52% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 52% -3.6%
10% -11.8% 52% -12.8%
15% -20.3% 51% -21.2%
20% -28.1% 48% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses154 / 141
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)295 / 303
History coverage70d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Kenin 62¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 62¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Laia Petretic 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 42¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Brooksby 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 55¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $2 +$3 +206%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +73%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$2 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 11 $2 +$1 +90%
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Camila Romero Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Wuning: Hanna Chang vs Reina Goto Jun 10 $1 +$1 +118%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Shintaro Imai Jun 10 $1 +$1 +67%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $2 −$1 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +55%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +86%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $2 +$1 +52%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 05 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs Bushido Wildcats (+1.5) Jun 04 $2 −$1 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 03 $2 +$1 +65%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1 +$7 +650%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $1 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 03 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $1 +$2 +172%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 03 $2 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +83%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 70¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) BUY Kenin 62¢ $2 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 55¢ $1 3h
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) BUY Brooksby 62¢ $1 3h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 5h
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Laia Petretic 57¢ $2 5h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $1 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 32¢ $2 3d
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 63¢ $1 4d
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) BUY Jovic 64¢ $1 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 28¢ $1 4d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 68¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 39¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka BUY Hikaru Sato 51¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY OLDBOYS- 52¢ $2 5d
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka BUY Hikaru Sato 51¢ $2 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 19¢ $1 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Partizan Sangal 20¢ $1 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 42¢ $1 6d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In BUY Frites Esports Club 50¢ $2 6d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 58¢ $1 6d
ITF Cuiaba: Maria Herazo vs Camila Romero BUY Maria Herazo 56¢ $2 6d
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Shintaro Imai BUY Uisung Park 59¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.09 · official $11.09 (match) · 550 history records