Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7ded…b549 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+2%) realized +$348 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$40
14 days+$175
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$9
other 27% −$3
sports 11% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -41.0% -46.6% 21% 7% -7.7%
≤30d 29 -21.9% -29.4% 45% 7% -7.6%
≤90d 29 -21.9% -29.4% 45% 7% -7.6%
all 29 -21.9% -29.4% 45% 7% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 7% -7.6%
10% -36.1% 7% -16.4%
15% -42.3% 7% -24.5%
20% -48.0% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×13.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.92 per $1 lost it wins $11.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized+$348
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage24d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 36¢ $520 $355 −$165 (-32%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 +$52 +426%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $497 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $485 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $485 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $488 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $495 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $368 +$132 +36%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $504 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $580 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $451 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $447 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $513 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $320 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $241 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 29m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 29m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $29 31m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $527 46m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $12 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $497 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $487 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $488 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $485 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $485 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $488 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $495 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 73¢ $368 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $487 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.18 · official $358.18 (match) · 66 history records