Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7dec…c92d
crypto · 260 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$542 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$493 · open +$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$134
Realized+$493
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses120 / 139
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage123d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$11
14 days+$325
30 days+$854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 49¢ 78¢ $85 $134 +$49 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $71 −$4 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $57 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $157 +$58 +37%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $76 +$14 +19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $121 +$7 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $46 −$6 -12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $137 +$85 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $152 +$2 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $101 −$50 -50%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $102 −$5 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $76 −$8 -11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $76 −$23 -30%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $51 −$13 -26%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $76 −$8 -10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $56 +$44 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $86 −$8 -9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $182 +$103 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $86 −$7 -8%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $61 −$3 -5%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $106 +$48 +45%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $76 −$33 -44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $152 −$33 -22%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $76 +$35 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $57 +$48 +85%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $203 −$35 -17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $66 +$27 +41%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $51 −$14 -27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $50 −$10 -21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $86 +$42 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $101 −$10 -10%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $101 −$62 -61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $76 −$16 -22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $76 −$9 -11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $71 −$31 -43%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $294 −$294 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $246 −$8 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $36 +$20 +56%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $475 +$333 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $254 +$218 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $87 −$86 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $76 −$69 -91%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $303 +$176 +58%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $182 +$74 +41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $76 −$41 -54%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $76 −$54 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$807
crypto 21% −$158
other 2% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $86 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 48¢ $67 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 44¢ $47 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $56 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $214 44h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 16¢ $5 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 16¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $157 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 67¢ $90 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $128 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $121 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 45¢ $40 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $169 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $46 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 94¢ $52 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $137 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 56¢ $154 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 27¢ $51 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $152 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 49¢ $97 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $68 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 36¢ $53 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 23% -9.1%
≤30d 108 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 35% -3.5%
≤90d 140 +3.3% -6.6% 44% 39% -3.8%
all 259 -3.1% -12.3% 46% 40% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 40% -6.8%
10% -20.7% 32% -15.8%
15% -28.4% 25% -23.9%
20% -35.4% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.44 · official $134.44 (match) · 620 history records