Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7deb…daeb sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$751 (-16%) realized −$207 · open −$502
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$517
sports 17% −$197
crypto 2% $0
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +33.2% +20.5% 100% 100% +19.3%
≤30d 10 +39.6% +26.3% 70% 60% -45.1%
≤90d 17 +26.6% +14.5% 76% 47% -31.4%
all 20 +25.9% +13.9% 70% 45% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 45% -24.8%
10% +3.0% 40% -32.0%
15% -6.9% 35% -38.6%
20% -16.1% 30% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$80 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$2,463
Realized−$207
Unrealized−$502
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage192d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 60¢ 50¢ $2,870 $2,432 −$438 (-15%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 25¢ 54¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+114%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 85¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ $75 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $13 +$3 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $20 +$2 +9%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $1 $0 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $404 −$398 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $36 +$114 +318%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $30 +$3 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $15 +$20 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $51 −$26 -50%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $51 +$39 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $22 +$14 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $36 −$36 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $5 $0 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $34 +$2 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $20 +$14 +71%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Apr 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $199 +$14 +7%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Mar 14 $114 −$18 -16%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 11 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 05 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 85¢ $10 7m
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $13 1h
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P SELL Jeisla Chaves 100¢ $22 8d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 97¢ $9 8d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 87¢ $10 8d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Jeisla Chaves 87¢ $1 8d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Over 47¢ $1 8d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 47¢ $152 29d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Dooho Choi 99¢ $150 29d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 24¢ $5 29d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 23¢ $31 29d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy SELL Modestas Bukauskas 100¢ $33 29d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy BUY Modestas Bukauskas 90¢ $30 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli SELL Ivan Erslan 100¢ $35 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli BUY Ivan Erslan 43¢ $15 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Tommy Gantt 99¢ $11 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tommy Gantt 89¢ $10 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Artur Minev 11¢ $14 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Artur Minev 15¢ $41 29d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 48¢ $51 29d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant SELL Ketlen Vieira 100¢ $90 29d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant BUY Ketlen Vieira 55¢ $41 29d
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant BUY Ketlen Vieira 58¢ $10 29d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 55¢ $53 29d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Melquizael Costa 48¢ $201 29d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 55¢ $200 29d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 63¢ $830 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,462.83 · official $2,462.83 (match) · 68 history records