Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7de3…d59b other 609 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,996 (+13%) realized +$6,870 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%332W / 192L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day164.5pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$8,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,809
7 days+$5,893
14 days+$5,774
30 days+$5,774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$6,032
other 35% −$439
world 1% +$369
crypto 0% −$72
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 506 +11.5% +0.9% 64% 44% +3.7%
≤30d 524 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 44% +3.2%
≤90d 524 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 44% +3.2%
all 524 +10.6% +0.1% 63% 44% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 44% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -6.7%
15% -18.3% 38% -15.7%
20% -26.3% 34% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$68 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8,337
Realized+$6,870
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses332 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions85
Markets (closed)524 / 609
History coverage12d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day164.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals No 72¢ 90¢ $536 $675 +$138 (+26%)
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals No 73¢ 78¢ $529 $561 +$33 (+6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 100¢ $234 $396 +$162 (+69%)
Noah Okafor: 1+ goals No 73¢ 55¢ $398 $301 −$98 (-25%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $248 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $194 $230 +$36 (+19%)
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ assists Yes 15¢ 50¢ $67 $222 +$155 (+233%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $210 $222 +$12 (+6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Over 41¢ 85¢ $102 $212 +$110 (+107%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 70¢ $183 $210 +$27 (+15%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 70¢ 100¢ $140 $200 +$60 (+43%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $120 $200 +$80 (+67%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 56¢ 56¢ $196 $194 −$2 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners Over 60¢ 55¢ $209 $189 −$20 (-10%)
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 50¢ $77 $183 +$106 (+138%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Over 57¢ 56¢ $161 $156 −$5 (-3%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 30¢ $155 $148 −$8 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $135 $139 +$4 (+3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 68¢ $122 $137 +$15 (+12%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 45¢ $129 $135 +$6 (+5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 66¢ $140 $132 −$8 (-6%)
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots Yes 50¢ 50¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 65¢ $120 $121 +$2 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 60¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $330 +$197 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $439 +$29 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $84 +$171 +205%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $114 +$103 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 +$17 +96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $39 +$19 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $136 +$70 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $8 +$5 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $126 +$77 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $66 +$134 +203%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $57 +$110 +194%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $69 +$92 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $187 +$187 +100%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $53 +$47 +89%
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals Jun 17 $52 +$10 +19%
Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$3 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $80 +$74 +93%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $75 +$25 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $112 +$88 +79%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$2 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $135 +$214 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 +$70 +127%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 +$73 +58%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $344 +$355 +103%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $299 +$244 +81%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots Jun 17 $134 +$66 +49%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists Jun 17 $0 +$1 +567%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $156 +$44 +28%
Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists Jun 17 $33 +$10 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 +$5 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$19 +64%
Jens Hauge: 1+ assists Jun 17 $44 +$6 +15%
Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $11 +$2 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $56 +$24 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $54 +$46 +85%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $278 +$172 +62%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $67 +$182 +270%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$37 +59%
Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals Jun 17 $157 +$43 +27%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$200 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots Jun 16 $33 +$30 +90%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $167 +$133 +80%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 16 $116 +$84 +72%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $43 1m
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $13 3m
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $4 4m
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY No 78¢ $79 9m
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $2 10m
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $16 16m
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 57¢ $63 24m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $3 29m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 72¢ $65 30m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $36 40m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $58 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $3 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $15 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $41 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $57 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $2 44m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 49m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 50m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $1 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $67 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 50m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 50m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $13 52m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $3 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $34 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,336.87 · official $8,314.61 (match) · 2339 history records