Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7D 0x7de3…0703 other 14 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+13%) realized +$47 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$55
sports 13% $0
crypto 11% −$12
politics 5% −$1
world 5% −$2
finance 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +79.8% +62.7% 40% 40% +82.0%
≤30d 5 +79.8% +62.7% 40% 40% +82.0%
≤90d 5 +79.8% +62.7% 40% 40% +82.0%
all 5 +79.8% +62.7% 40% 40% +82.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.7% 40% +82.0%
10% +47.1% 40% +64.5%
15% +32.9% 40% +48.6%
20% +19.9% 20% +34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$11 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.96 per $1 lost it wins $5.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $12 +$54 +458%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$12 +42%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 4h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 15h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 23h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 26h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 27h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.10 · official $82.10 (match) · 16 history records