Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7de2…ce5d sports 369 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-7%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%124W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day68.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$188
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$207
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -18.1% -25.9% 37% 35% -24.0%
≤30d 369 -20.8% -28.3% 34% 33% -25.4%
≤90d 369 -20.8% -28.3% 34% 33% -25.4%
all 369 -20.8% -28.3% 34% 33% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 33% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 31% -32.5%
15% -41.4% 28% -39.1%
20% -47.2% 24% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses124 / 245
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day68.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (227 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 +$3 +69%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -35%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 +$2 +53%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $4 +$8 +190%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 +$7 +177%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$8 +200%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -37%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $2 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 5d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 37¢ $2 5d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $2 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $1 5d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 29¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ $2 5d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 5d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 27¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 27¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 46¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $2 5d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $2 5d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 67¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 707 history records