Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7ddf…eba2 crypto 362 markets active 3d ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-3%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%140W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day76.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$420
14 days−$206
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$477
other 15% −$101
sports 4% +$390
culture 1% −$7
politics 1% −$21
tech 1% −$12
world 1% +$50
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 37% -28.6%
≤30d 362 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 30% -25.5%
≤90d 362 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 30% -25.5%
all 362 -2.5% -11.8% 39% 30% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 30% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 23% -32.6%
15% -27.9% 17% -39.1%
20% -35.0% 13% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses140 / 222
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 362
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day76.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$21 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$12 -67%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +56%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$17 -56%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$27 -88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2240 history records