Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dde…0085 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$8
sports 11% +$4
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 41% -21.5%
≤30d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 41% -21.5%
≤90d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 41% -21.5%
all 22 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 41% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 41% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 23% -29.0%
15% -29.8% 14% -35.9%
20% -36.7% 5% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +558%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $3.17 (match) · 45 history records