Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7ddc…7b24 sports 377 markets active 3d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$447 (-3%) realized −$447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%214W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$140
14 days+$215
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$352
other 19% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.4% -2.9% 84% 65% -3.5%
≤30d 102 +8.3% -2.0% 80% 62% -4.9%
≤90d 198 -14.7% -22.9% 59% 48% -15.4%
all 377 -5.0% -14.1% 57% 51% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 51% -12.6%
10% -22.3% 40% -20.9%
15% -29.8% 33% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 22% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses214 / 163
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage110d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$13 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $67 +$6 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $240 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$16 +80%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$4 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $48 +$12 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $19 +$8 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$14 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $229 +$24 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$20 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $18 +$8 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24 +$13 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $131 +$6 +5%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $126 +$5 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $200 +$26 +13%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $26 +$4 +16%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $23 +$22 +97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$13 +32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $55 +$9 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $83 +$23 +27%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $60 +$23 +38%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $162 +$21 +13%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $138 +$24 +18%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $130 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $99 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $55 +$44 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $13 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $67 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $245 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $122 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $240 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 48¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 36¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $101 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 33¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $57 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $49 4d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 24¢ $4 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $212 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $23 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 81¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $60 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $14 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $254 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $229 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $64 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $116 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records