Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7dd7…a081 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$17 (-18%) realized −$18 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$21
crypto 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 100% +31.2%
≤30d 3 +164.8% +139.6% 100% 100% +90.7%
≤90d 3 +164.8% +139.6% 100% 100% +90.7%
all 9 -11.6% -20.0% 33% 33% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 33% -39.9%
10% -27.7% 33% -45.6%
15% -34.7% 22% -50.9%
20% -41.1% 22% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage129d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? No 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? No 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? May 23 $3 +$12 +417%
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 21d
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 111d
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 126d
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 128d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY No 29¢ $10 128d
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 128d
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 128d
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $10 128d
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 128d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 128d
Will Extended launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 18¢ $3 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.69 · official $31.69 (match) · 18 history records