Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dd7…a691 sports 905 markets active 7d ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$61 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%267W / 615L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$3
other 23% +$14
politics 20% +$166
crypto 16% +$106
economics 6% −$225
world 2% −$61
tech 1% +$49
weather 0% −$5
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.6% -26.4% 17% 17% -31.7%
≤30d 13 -23.7% -31.0% 23% 23% -27.9%
≤90d 22 -10.7% -19.2% 27% 27% -20.5%
all 882 -9.1% -17.8% 30% 29% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 29% -10.1%
10% -25.6% 27% -18.7%
15% -32.8% 26% -26.5%
20% -39.4% 24% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses267 / 615
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)882 / 905
History coverage657d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 882 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+120%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-84%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$6 +206%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $2 +$2 +97%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 31? May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $3 +$13 +414%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $2 +$4 +178%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 28? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 25 $2 $0 +16%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $2 +$4 +186%
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes Jan 23 $2 +$5 +245%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21 Jan 22 $2 +$3 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 20d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 20d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 20d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 20¢ $3 21d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $2 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27d
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Taylor Fritz 1¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.80 · official $61.62 (match) · 1645 history records