Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dd5…28f2 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$487 (-3%) realized −$475 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%36W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$448
14 days−$441
30 days−$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$617
other 9% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -9.5% -18.1% 76% 8% -14.3%
≤30d 58 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 5% -12.7%
≤90d 58 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 5% -12.7%
all 58 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 5% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 5% -12.7%
10% -23.5% 3% -21.1%
15% -30.9% 2% -28.7%
20% -37.7% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$43 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$475
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses36 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage18d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 50¢ $260 $248 −$12 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $205 +$1 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $215 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $113 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $200 +$5 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $225 −$2 -1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $105 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $384 +$7 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $330 +$5 +2%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $479 +$1 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $385 +$115 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $220 +$3 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $453 +$47 +10%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $260 −$217 -83%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $245 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $269 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $285 +$123 +43%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $320 +$5 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $220 +$1 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $485 +$10 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $285 +$10 +4%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $295 +$5 +2%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $520 +$10 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $540 −$540 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $203 +$3 +2%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 10 $520 +$10 +2%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $710 $0 -0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $413 +$7 +2%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $540 +$2 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 01 $270 $0 -0%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 31 $240 −$8 -4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $285 −$29 -10%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $345 −$44 -13%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) May 31 $13 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 31 $225 +$5 +2%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $85 −$1 -1%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $156 +$2 +2%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A May 30 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No 42¢ $206 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $205 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $260 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $7 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $50 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $5 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 44¢ $158 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 43¢ $215 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 66¢ $95 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 66¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 66¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 66¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 65¢ $113 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 41¢ $0 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 41¢ $205 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $200 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $151 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $15 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $6 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $1 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $12 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 43¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 43¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 43¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 43¢ $29 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? SELL No 96¢ $49 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? SELL No 96¢ $5 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $105 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $105 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.50 · official $247.50 (match) · 309 history records