Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7dd2…7f61 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$153
other 19% −$16
crypto 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.9% +28.4% 67% 67% +44.8%
≤30d 5 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% +37.2%
≤90d 5 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% +37.2%
all 5 +20.1% +8.6% 60% 60% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 60% +37.2%
10% -1.8% 40% +24.1%
15% -11.3% 40% +12.1%
20% -20.0% 40% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$15 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage16d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 28 $78 +$13 +17%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $51 −$16 -31%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 28 $100 +$140 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe SELL Carstensz 100¢ $92 26m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz 85¢ $78 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 38¢ $35 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND SELL 95¢ $240 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 39¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $35 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records