Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7dd1…009b sports 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,042 (+6%) realized +$2,011 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%118W / 111L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$1,413
other 31% +$1,554
world 3% −$834
tech 1% +$64
economics 1% −$72
crypto 0% −$16
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 229 -2.3% -11.6% 52% 50% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 50% -4.4%
10% -20.1% 46% -13.5%
15% -27.8% 44% -21.9%
20% -34.9% 39% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$91 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$2,011
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses118 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage284d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 10 $219 +$81 +37%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Nov 04 $40 +$60 +150%
Fiorentina vs. Lecce: O/U 2.5 Nov 03 $28 +$22 +75%
Fiorentina vs. Lecce: Both Teams to Score Nov 03 $28 +$22 +75%
Hellenic Championship: Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda Nov 03 $63 +$37 +58%
Spread: Barcelona (-2.5) Nov 03 $62 +$38 +61%
49ers vs. Giants Nov 03 $57 +$43 +75%
Jaguars vs. Raiders Nov 03 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $83 +$17 +20%
Open de Moselle: Terence Atmane vs Hugo Gaston Nov 03 $59 +$41 +70%
Bears vs. Bengals Nov 03 $59 +$41 +70%
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 47.5 Nov 03 $104 +$96 +92%
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) Nov 03 $108 +$92 +85%
Will Torino win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Torino vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Nov 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Parma vs. Bologna: O/U 2.5 Nov 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Parma vs. Bologna: Both Teams to Score Nov 02 $29 −$29 -100%
New Mexico vs. UNLV Nov 02 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5) Nov 02 $54 −$54 -100%
UAB Blazers vs. UConn: O/U 62.5 Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Fresno State vs. Boise State: O/U 49.5 Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Nov 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Cincinnati vs. Utah: O/U 55.5 Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Nov 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Nuno Borges Nov 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Nov 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Rams (-14.5) Nov 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Nov 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Chiefs vs. Bills Nov 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: 49ers (-3.5) Nov 02 $59 −$1 -2%
Spread: Broncos (-1.5) Nov 02 $116 −$116 -100%
Spread: Lions (-8.5) Nov 02 $101 −$53 -52%
Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 Nov 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Packers (-10.5) Nov 02 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Chargers (-8.5) Nov 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Colts (-3.5) Nov 02 $48 −$48 -100%
O/U 51.5 Nov 02 $53 +$47 +89%
Spread: Miami (-10.5) Nov 02 $52 +$48 +92%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Nov 02 $37 +$63 +170%
Avalanche vs. Sharks Oct 31 $35 −$2 -6%
Warriors vs. Bucks Oct 31 $29 +$71 +245%
Spread: Devils (-1.5) Oct 31 $59 +$41 +70%
Magic vs. Pistons Oct 30 $45 +$55 +122%
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Oct 30 $63 +$37 +59%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Oct 29 $52 +$48 +92%
Celtics vs. Pelicans Oct 28 $55 +$45 +82%
Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Oct 28 $49 +$51 +104%
Suns vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Oct 26 $51 +$49 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Cardinals vs. Cowboys BUY Cardinals 40¢ $40 235d
Spread: Rams (-14.5) BUY Saints 52¢ $8 235d
Spread: Rams (-14.5) BUY Saints 51¢ $44 235d
Seahawks vs. Commanders BUY Commanders 42¢ $42 235d
Chiefs vs. Bills BUY Chiefs 57¢ $57 235d
Jaguars vs. Raiders BUY Jaguars 56¢ $56 235d
49ers vs. Giants BUY 49ers 57¢ $57 236d
Spread: 49ers (-3.5) SELL Giants 58¢ $58 236d
Bears vs. Bengals BUY Bears 59¢ $59 236d
Spread: Broncos (-1.5) BUY Texans 58¢ $42 236d
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) BUY Falcons 54¢ $54 236d
Spread: Broncos (-1.5) BUY Texans 58¢ $16 236d
Spread: Lions (-8.5) BUY Lions 53¢ $53 236d
Spread: Lions (-8.5) SELL Vikings 47¢ $47 236d
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 47.5 BUY Over 52¢ $52 236d
Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 236d
Spread: Packers (-10.5) BUY Packers 57¢ $57 236d
Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 236d
Vikings vs. Lions: O/U 47.5 BUY Over 52¢ $52 236d
Spread: 49ers (-3.5) BUY Giants 59¢ $59 236d
Spread: Chargers (-8.5) BUY Chargers 55¢ $55 236d
Spread: Packers (-10.5) BUY Packers 57¢ $57 236d
Spread: Patriots (-6.5) BUY Falcons 54¢ $54 236d
Spread: Lions (-8.5) BUY Vikings 48¢ $48 236d
Spread: Broncos (-1.5) BUY Texans 58¢ $58 236d
Spread: Colts (-3.5) BUY Colts 48¢ $48 236d
Spread: Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Elche CF 62¢ $2 236d
Spread: Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Elche CF 62¢ $60 236d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.03 · official $131.10 (match) · 666 history records