Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7dcf…a7bd
weather · 1003 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,874 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,245 · open −$4,687
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,100
Realized−$8,245
Unrealized−$4,687
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 100
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions499
Markets (closed)103 / 1003
History coverage3d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1102.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 499 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,310
7 days−$8,245
14 days−$8,245
30 days−$8,245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $246 $258 +$12 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $208 $256 +$48 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 49¢ 57¢ $126 $150 +$23 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $109 $114 +$5 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satou Sabally win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? Yes 2¢ 37¢ $1 $29 +$28 (+1924%)
Will Rhyne Howard win the 2026 WNBA MVP award? Yes 2¢ 33¢ $1 $26 +$25 (+1712%)
Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $3 $16 +$12 (+395%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 17¢ 56¢ $3 $11 +$7 (+233%)
Will Gabriel Bonfim fight Michael Morales in his next UFC bout? Yes 6¢ 28¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+344%)
Will Montpellier win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Yes 4¢ 27¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+575%)
Will Gabriel Bonfim fight Belal Muhammad in his next UFC bout? Yes 6¢ 26¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+324%)
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Stade Français win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+237%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 89¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+1586%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 72¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+407%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 17¢ 65¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+290%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+997%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 9¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+444%)
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals? Yes 20¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+160%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 64¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1884%)
Will La Rochelle win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will there be exactly 6 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+140%)
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 98¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+486%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? Jun 12 $68 −$65 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $249 −$248 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 −$131 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ivory Coast score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Jordan score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 98°F or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Jun 11 $120 −$118 -98%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 11 $286 −$286 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $348 −$347 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$12 +85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 −$68 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 31% −$4,679
other 21% −$5,077
politics 18% −$163
tech 15% −$1,554
sports 8% −$440
world 2% −$132
finance 2% −$375
culture 1% −$284
economics 1% −$227
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $14 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $60 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $40 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $24 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $15 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $22 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $6 1m
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $22 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $29 3m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $6 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $24 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $6 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $6 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $29 6m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $13 6m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $22 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $22 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $9 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $19 10m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $2 10m
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 10m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $30 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-75.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -72.4% -75.0% 3% 3% -96.7%
≤30d 103 -72.4% -75.0% 3% 3% -96.7%
≤90d 103 -72.4% -75.0% 3% 3% -96.7%
all 103 -72.4% -75.0% 3% 3% -96.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1102.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.0% 3% -96.7%
10% ← realistic here -77.4% 3% -97.0%
15% -79.6% 3% -97.3%
20% -81.6% 3% -97.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,100.31 · official $1,091.76 (match) · 3500 history records