trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET | Up | 59¢ | 38¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-36%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 13? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | Jun 13 | $3 | $0 | +14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$1 | -44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Jun 13 | $3 | +$1 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$1 | -37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -40% |
| Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Jun 13 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 45% | 27% | -37.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 45% | 27% | -37.3% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 45% | 27% | -37.3% |
| all | 11 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 45% | 27% | -37.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -38.7% | 27% | -37.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -44.6% | 0% | -43.3% |
| 15% | -49.9% | 0% | -48.8% |
| 20% | -54.8% | 0% | -53.8% |