trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -26.6% | -33.6% | 33% | 33% | -5.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -32.2% | -38.6% | 20% | 20% | -12.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 33% | 33% | +4.9% |
| all | 15 | -28.7% | -35.5% | 33% | 33% | +4.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.5% | 33% | +4.9% |
| 10% | -41.7% | 27% | -5.2% |
| 15% | -47.3% | 27% | -14.3% |
| 20% | -52.5% | 20% | -22.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 89¢ | 88¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-1%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $45 | $46 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 88¢ | $13 | $16 | +$3 (+24%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $8 | $11 | +$3 (+35%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $8 | $6 | −$2 (-31%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | Yes | 20¢ | 23¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 18 | $70 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $90 | +$19 | +21% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$2 | -20% |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | Jun 01 | $20 | −$13 | -61% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $32 | −$14 | -43% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 28 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 28 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 27 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Apr 27 | $55 | +$25 | +45% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 27 | $70 | +$44 | +63% |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Apr 15 | $3 | −$2 | -82% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Apr 08 | $20 | +$18 | +89% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 08 | $40 | +$22 | +56% |