Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7dc6…b32c
weather · 1526 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$125 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$87 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$936
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1489 / 19
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1508 / 1526
History coverage52d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 1508 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$23
14 days+$31
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $117 $113 −$4 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 98¢ $99 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? No 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? No 95¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? No 97¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11? No 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? No 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 6? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 29? No 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? No 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $198 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on May 2? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 29? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 3? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$72
politics 2% $0
other 1% −$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $198 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 12h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.6% -8.9% 99% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 766 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1508 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 1508 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $935.64 · official $935.60 (match) · 3500 history records