Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7D 0x7dbf…0a5a other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$58 (-11%) realized −$56 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day13.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)+14.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+26.4%	+14.3%	40%	35%	-21.0%
≤30d	20	+26.4%	+14.3%	40%	35%	-21.0%
≤90d	20	+26.4%	+14.3%	40%	35%	-21.0%
all	20	+26.4%	+14.3%	40%	35%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.3%	35%	-21.0%
10%	+3.4%	30%	-28.6%
15%	-6.6%	30%	-35.5%
20%	-15.8%	25%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +88% → late -36% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized−$56

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage4d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day13.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$57	$56	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	−$9	-45%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	+$4	+23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$24	+$16	+67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$113	+$41	+37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$38	−$37	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$31	−$2	-7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$39	−$38	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$30	+$20	+65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$33	$0	+1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 13	$4	+$3	+97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$2	+$25	+1225%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$58	24m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	32m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	48m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	51m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	82¢	$41	59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$24	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$18	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	12¢	$11	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$12	6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	80¢	$98	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	45¢	$56	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	68¢	$56	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$57	12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$31	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	29¢	$28	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$30	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$7	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$8	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.48 · official $65.49 (match) · 47 history records