Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7dbf…b9ed other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+4%) realized +$74 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$205
14 days+$234
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$129
weather 20% +$14
sports 19% −$58
world 8% −$54
politics 2% +$64
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +22.8% +11.1% 63% 63% +11.6%
≤30d 30 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +7.0%
≤90d 41 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 51% -2.0%
all 67 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 43% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 43% -5.2%
10% -29.3% 37% -14.2%
15% -36.1% 36% -22.5%
20% -42.4% 30% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage159d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 23 $11 +$16 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$36 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$49 +190%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$50 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $92 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $15 +$38 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $71 −$45 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $52 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $22 +$18 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $34 +$41 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $49 +$57 +116%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Frosinone Calcio vs. SSC Bari end in a draw? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UC Sampdoria win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 vs. FC Südtirol end in a draw? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Eyüpspor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will EC Bahia vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $153 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 92¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $92 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $71 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 5d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals AND Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY 20¢ $10 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $25 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.29 · official $55.99 (match) · 157 history records