Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7D 0x7dbc…a2ed sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$79 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$118
14 days+$205
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$6
economics 16% +$22
sports 15% +$125
politics 6% −$11
tech 5% −$6
crypto 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +792.8% +707.8% 100% 100% +683.4%
≤30d 34 +57.0% +42.1% 29% 29% +34.1%
≤90d 34 +57.0% +42.1% 29% 29% +34.1%
all 44 +43.2% +29.6% 34% 32% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.6% 32% +9.0%
10% +17.2% 27% -1.4%
15% +5.9% 27% -10.9%
20% -4.5% 25% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +138% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage225d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $65 $45 −$20 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$73 +712%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$12 +376%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$31 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 13 $58 −$11 -19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $135 +$18 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7? Dec 02 $10 −$9 -94%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $11 +$4 +36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 27 $46 −$11 -23%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 27 $4 +$5 +145%
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 16 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $119 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $5 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $10 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $5 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $55 16d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 16d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.74 · official $44.74 (match) · 115 history records