Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db9…37b8 crypto 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%16W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$6
other 28% −$11
weather 13% −$7
politics 9% −$3
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 285 +1.5% -8.2% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 365 +1.1% -8.5% 4% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×12.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses16 / 349
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage100d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $74 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 83°F or below on June 1? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 1? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 31? May 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 31? May 30 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $72 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $72 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $70 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 831 history records