Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db9…95eb other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$10
other 19% −$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 17% 17% -5.7%
≤30d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 17% 17% -5.7%
≤90d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 17% 17% -5.7%
all 12 +2.1% -7.6% 17% 17% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 17% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 17% -14.7%
15% -24.5% 8% -22.9%
20% -31.9% 8% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2.5194722400187857% → late 6.7508530260979525% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$5 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 46¢ 72¢ $27 $42 +$15 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 48¢ 32¢ $45 $29 −$15 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$43 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $45 +$13 +29%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $36 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $36 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $36 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 85¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $35 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $7 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $4 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $1 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $0 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $67 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $11 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $5 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $45 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $7 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $45 10h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $4 14h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 48¢ $6 14h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 73¢ $9 14h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 84¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.48 · official $71.48 (match) · 47 history records