Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7db5…cf18
other · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,514 -92%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,867 · open +$740
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,450
Realized−$19,867
Unrealized+$740
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses16 / 477
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions47
Markets (closed)493 / 153
History coverage21d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day168.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%
Chart Positions 47 History 493 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,179
7 days−$20,480
14 days−$19,046
30 days−$19,867
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 30¢ 91¢ $708 $2,130 +$1,422 (+201%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $372 $364 −$8 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $337 $257 −$80 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $209 $203 −$6 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $66 $112 +$46 (+70%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $44 $65 +$21 (+49%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $202 $30 −$171 (-85%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$5 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+44%)
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 87¢ 11¢ $94 $12 −$82 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+24%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$8 -174%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $6 −$12 -191%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $224 −$276 -123%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$31 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $648 −$648 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$239 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $135 −$283 -210%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$11 -156%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$392 -360%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $15 −$18 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$12 -125%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% +$1,888
sports 6% +$397
tech 4% −$32
crypto 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 7m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 16m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $45 17m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $122 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 17m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 17m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $33 18m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 18m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $29 18m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 4¢ $1 19m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 12¢ $4 20m
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL No 13¢ $2 20m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 24m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 24m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 29m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-82.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 430 -84.7% -86.1% 3% 2% -65.2%
≤30d 493 -80.9% -82.7% 3% 3% -50.7%
≤90d 493 -80.9% -82.7% 3% 3% -50.7%
all 493 -80.9% -82.7% 3% 3% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover168.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.7% 3% -50.7%
10% ← realistic here -84.4% 2% -55.4%
15% -85.9% 2% -59.7%
20% -87.3% 2% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,450.02 · official $3,450.02 (match) · 3500 history records