Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db3…c579 crypto 1371 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,402 (-4%) realized −$1,402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%711W / 869L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,383
other 5% −$104
sports 2% −$64
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -81.2% -83.0% 7% 6% -65.1%
≤30d 243 -80.1% -82.0% 7% 7% -64.8%
≤90d 1580 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 45% -20.8%
all 1580 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 45% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 45% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 44% -28.3%
15% -37.9% 42% -35.3%
20% -44.0% 39% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses711 / 869
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1580 / 1371
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1580 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 28m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $311 51m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $37 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $160 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $237 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $155 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $171 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $137 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records