Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db3…a090 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$32
sports 27% −$22
politics 8% −$11
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage124d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $379 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $409 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $487 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $336 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $590 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $125 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $129 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $215 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $218 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $349 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 34h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 35h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 36h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 39h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 47h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $49.85 (match) · 1272 history records