Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7db2…3ce5 world 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,103 (-1%) realized −$1,133 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate36%69W / 123L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$747per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,887
7 days−$2,530
14 days−$2,465
30 days−$1,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$4,066
finance 9% +$642
other 8% −$769
tech 5% +$352
sports 4% +$583
politics 3% −$547
culture 0% −$243
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -23.4% -30.7% 20% 4% -15.1%
≤30d 49 -2.7% -11.9% 29% 12% -12.1%
≤90d 77 -7.9% -16.7% 38% 17% -11.6%
all 192 -13.7% -21.9% 36% 17% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 17% -12.2%
10% -29.4% 11% -20.6%
15% -36.2% 7% -28.2%
20% -42.5% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$924) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$144 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$3,190
Realized−$1,133
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses69 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 195
History coverage311d
Avg bet$747
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $2,980 $3,099 +$119 (+4%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $158 $84 −$74 (-47%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $8 −$15 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 20 $4,353 +$23 +0%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 20 $104 −$32 -31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 20 $117 −$101 -86%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3,861 −$2,388 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $48 −$19 -39%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $45 −$6 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,189 −$14 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $62 −$14 -23%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $570 −$315 -55%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7,202 −$20 -0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 18 $100 −$39 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $160 −$44 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,829 +$54 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $9,599 +$947 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7,429 −$51 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $90 −$38 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $410 −$13 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $415 −$294 -71%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $1,117 −$795 -71%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,284 +$639 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $184 −$82 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $910 −$10 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $910 +$157 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 29 $2,460 +$83 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $3 −$2 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $500 −$380 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1,000 −$579 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $1,000 −$258 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $440 +$106 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,950 +$69 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 28 $1,450 +$56 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $603 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $69 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,529 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $759 −$690 -91%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $100 +$989 +989%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $20 −$17 -84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 23 $500 −$148 -30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 23 $500 −$91 -18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 23 $500 −$66 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $204 −$19 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $255 +$89 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1,802 +$1,637 +91%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 12 $1,807 −$679 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,005 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 78¢ $1,002 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 78¢ $2,035 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 81¢ $90 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 80¢ $126 2h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY Yes 8¢ $118 2h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL Yes 28¢ $37 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $72 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $74 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $252 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $325 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 80¢ $8 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 4h
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL Yes 28¢ $35 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $120 15h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $993 15h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,076 15h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $29 15h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $79 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,190.47 · official $3,163.83 (match) · 785 history records