Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7db0…8c18 other 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,208 (+6%) realized +$6,029 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%198W / 81L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$524
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,154
politics 9% +$1,876
world 6% +$1,335
sports 2% −$735
tech 1% −$18
culture 1% +$227
crypto 1% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.5% -27.1% 50% 50% -6.9%
≤30d 28 -20.9% -28.4% 61% 43% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +7.7% -2.5% 73% 55% +0.6%
all 279 +2.5% -7.2% 71% 41% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 41% -4.1%
10% -16.1% 23% -13.3%
15% -24.2% 13% -21.7%
20% -31.7% 9% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$94 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$1,897
Realized+$6,029
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses198 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions16
Markets (closed)279 / 295
History coverage695d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Yes 66¢ 61¢ $396 $366 −$30 (-8%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $274 $338 +$64 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $217 $220 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? No 61¢ 76¢ $165 $208 +$43 (+26%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 71¢ 86¢ $142 $171 +$29 (+21%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $60 $140 +$80 (+135%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 78¢ $81 $122 +$41 (+51%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? No 66¢ 68¢ $87 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Will there be 3+ Pentakills at MSI? No 78¢ 84¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 42¢ 22¢ $97 $50 −$47 (-49%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 74¢ 90¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+21%)
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? No 89¢ 98¢ $36 $39 +$4 (+10%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? No 7¢ 4¢ $50 $24 −$25 (-51%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 89¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $214 +$130 +61%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $124 −$121 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $96 +$29 +30%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $43 +$23 +52%
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $320 +$12 +4%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $68 +$31 +45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $71 +$6 +8%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Oh Joong-ki win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial Ele Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $460 −$429 -93%
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $95 −$72 -76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $195 −$193 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $318 −$237 -74%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $654 +$187 +29%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30? May 31 $81 +$18 +23%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $387 +$89 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,067 +$213 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $2,963 +$309 +10%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 29 $95 +$105 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $356 +$76 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $251 +$91 +36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 21 $142 +$12 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 19 $810 −$155 -19%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $292 +$20 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? May 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $1,140 +$168 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $555 +$186 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 11 $99 +$14 +14%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31? May 10 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 08 $202 +$104 +51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $66 +$12 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch May 07 $24 +$9 +37%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 06 $53 +$16 +30%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 06 $195 +$58 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 05 $21 +$1 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $131 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? May 01 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? Apr 30 $1 +$7 +929%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $1,037 +$256 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 4m
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 6m
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? BUY No 61¢ $160 9m
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? BUY No 59¢ $35 9m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 73¢ $67 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $89 10h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 12h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 16h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 66¢ $194 16h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 66¢ $136 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY No 72¢ $154 25h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $42 34h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $82 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 6¢ $24 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 8¢ $2 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 8¢ $6 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 9¢ $12 2d
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY No 9¢ $6 2d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $60 3d
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $12 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $4 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $18 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $19 5d
Will there be 3+ Pentakills at MSI? BUY No 79¢ $7 6d
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY No 76¢ $9 6d
Will there be 3+ Pentakills at MSI? BUY No 79¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.69 · official $1,896.70 (match) · 3159 history records