Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7daf…8ca4 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3341 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$6,022 (-33%) realized −$6,016 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +324% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +226% what you keep after slip
Net edge+226%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%200W / 194L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3341.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3341 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+283.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 +323.7% +283.3% 51% 39% -2.2%
≤30d 394 +323.7% +283.3% 51% 39% -2.2%
≤90d 394 +323.7% +283.3% 51% 39% -2.2%
all 394 +323.7% +283.3% 51% 39% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3341.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +283.3% 39% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +246.6% 31% -11.6%
15% +213.1% 30% -20.1%
20% +182.4% 28% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +324% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +664% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized−$6,016
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses200 / 194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)394 / 159
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3341.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 79¢ 96¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 16¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 239 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +1884%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 4AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$16 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 1PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$24 +2351%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1939%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$14 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$11 +355%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$17 +5908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$10 -84%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$34 +2694%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1848%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +114%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$8 -48%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$20 +1446%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$53 +2604%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$46 +1799%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$264 +12576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$11 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$19 +1856%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$141 +14081%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 9AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$62 +470%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$25 +12104%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 1AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$19 +892%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.18 · official $874.81 (match) · 3500 history records