Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7dab…96c1 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$63 (+27%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$100
sports 46% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +76.6% +59.8% 58% 58% +56.3%
≤30d 12 +76.6% +59.8% 58% 58% +56.3%
≤90d 12 +76.6% +59.8% 58% 58% +56.3%
all 12 +76.6% +59.8% 58% 58% +56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.8% 58% +56.3%
10% +44.5% 58% +41.3%
15% +30.5% 58% +27.7%
20% +17.7% 58% +15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +179% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$34 +335%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$40 +194%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$74 +360%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$32 +126%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +118%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $45 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $60 30m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $20 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $41 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $25 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records