Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7da7…1b96 crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%231W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$49
weather 12% −$6
sports 6% −$7
other 4% $0
tech 4% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 8% -13.7%
≤30d 158 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 15% -13.9%
≤90d 340 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 28% -18.7%
all 405 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 32% -15.5%
10% -22.1% 25% -23.6%
15% -29.6% 20% -30.9%
20% -36.5% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses231 / 174
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)405 / 410
History coverage234d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Down 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? Down 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Down 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? Down 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -29%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +6%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 99¢ $1 47m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 90¢ $1 57m
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 99¢ $1 20h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 100¢ $1 20h
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 34¢ $0 23h
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 95¢ $1 23h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 93¢ $1 24h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 91¢ $1 24h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 95¢ $1 24h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 54¢ $1 26h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 95¢ $1 26h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 94¢ $1 27h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 92¢ $1 27h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 100¢ $2 45h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 99¢ $2 46h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 58¢ $1 46h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 99¢ $2 47h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 65¢ $1 47h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 90¢ $2 2d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 81¢ $1 2d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $2 2d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $2 2d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $2 2d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $5.77 (match) · 972 history records