Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7da5…0865
weather · 1428 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,336 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,886 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized−$1,886
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1196 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1420 / 1428
History coverage49d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 8 History 1420 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$7
14 days−$20
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? No 88¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 +$8 +14%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$1,795
other 2% +$17
finance 2% −$33
crypto 1% −$73
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $32 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $31 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 72¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $7 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 1024 -2.1% -11.5% 88% 16% -10.7%
≤90d 1420 -5.2% -14.3% 84% 19% -17.8%
all 1420 -5.2% -14.3% 84% 19% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 19% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 4% -25.6%
15% -30.0% 2% -32.8%
20% -36.8% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.05 · official $88.05 (match) · 3500 history records