Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7da3…45b3 sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%284W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$23
14 days−$60
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$32
other 21% −$50
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 8% -9.9%
≤30d 286 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 302 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 4% -9.8%
all 302 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses284 / 18
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)302 / 310
History coverage31d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+81%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+136%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $107 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $244 +$10 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $83 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $256 +$3 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $47 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $104 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $61 −$35 -57%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $109 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $63 +$2 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$12 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$26 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $128 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Ge Jun 15 $2 +$4 +211%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $373 +$4 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $142 +$5 +3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $99 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $8 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $39 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $17 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $22 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $94 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $20 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $70 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $63 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $49 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $19 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $128 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $68 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $9 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $11 4h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $40 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $247 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL No 27¢ $26 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $59 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $45 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.94 · official $13.94 (match) · 743 history records