Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d9f…d686
sports · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$121 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$129 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage209d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$12
14 days−$233
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 −$5 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$11 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +487%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2025-11-18? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2025-11-18? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Romania vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs Jun 06 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$25 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $20 +$9 +47%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Aliaksandra S Jan 31 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Jan 31 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? Jan 31 $5 +$6 +116%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jan 26 $5 +$31 +614%
Bucks vs. Spurs Jan 16 $20 +$9 +47%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $58 +$10 +17%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $10 +$7 +72%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Ozzy Osbourne be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 20 Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 30 $1 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 30 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files? Nov 28 $5 −$1 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 19 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Nov 18 $71 −$7 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% +$41
other 24% −$99
world 24% +$13
politics 13% −$81
culture 1% −$7
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $106 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 15¢ $9 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $10 3h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $18 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $15 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $5 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 44¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $10 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $10 14d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $10 16d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 26d
US strike on Mexico by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 110d
Mavericks vs. Spurs BUY Mavericks 18¢ $2 126d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 129d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 129d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 23¢ $10 129d
Magic vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 98¢ $16 132d
Magic vs. Spurs BUY Magic 9¢ $2 132d
Magic vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $10 132d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 0¢ $4 132d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 0¢ $5 132d
Spurs vs. Hornets BUY Spurs 20¢ $5 133d
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Aliaksandra S SELL Sasnovich 100¢ $47 133d
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Aliaksandra S BUY Sasnovich 85¢ $20 133d
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Aliaksandra S BUY Sasnovich 85¢ $20 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +121.0% +100.0% 75% 50% +19.2%
≤30d 31 -51.2% -55.8% 23% 19% -60.2%
≤90d 31 -51.2% -55.8% 23% 19% -60.2%
all 49 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 33% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 33% -26.6%
10% -32.3% 27% -33.6%
15% -38.9% 20% -40.0%
20% -44.9% 14% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.24 · official $5.24 (match) · 140 history records