Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7d9d…0572 crypto 1541 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-1%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%1468W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$23
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$110
other 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +2.4% -7.3% 98% 5% -7.5%
≤30d 335 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1541 -0.6% -10.0% 95% 1% -10.3%
all 1541 -0.6% -10.0% 95% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1468 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1541 / 1541
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1541 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $27 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 14 $12 +$4 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $24 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 20h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records