Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7d9d…e979
sports · 178 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,718 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,292 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$340
Realized−$4,292
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses34 / 133
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions9
Markets (closed)167 / 178
History coverage347d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 9 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$338
7 days+$338
14 days+$338
30 days−$2,160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? No 32¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Tesla reach $518 in November? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 19¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in June? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner JD Gaming 17¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner FlyQuest 6¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 28¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 2 Winner 100 Thieves 17¢ 0¢ $520 $0 −$520 (-100%)
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 Yes 22¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Movistar KOI 6¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $277 +$679 +245%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $145 −$110 -76%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $26 −$2 -7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $113 −$79 -70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$30 -58%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $203 −$100 -49%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $596 −$585 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $1,135 −$454 -40%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $775 −$477 -62%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 25 $246 −$210 -86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $102 −$6 -6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winne May 25 $199 −$108 -54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $174 +$13 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $20 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $175 −$172 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner May 21 $182 −$179 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $7 +$2 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $72 −$46 -64%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $5 −$2 -48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 21 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $46 +$35 +76%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 21 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $10 −$1 -6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $36 −$3 -7%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $5 +$28 +543%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $87 −$13 -14%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $19 +$39 +202%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 21 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 21 $62 −$40 -65%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $10 −$2 -22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 +$30 +197%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $36 +$16 +43%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $7 +$10 +146%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 07 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 07 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 07 $20 −$8 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8? May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SoundHound AI (SOUN) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$3,478
crypto 21% −$462
other 6% −$213
finance 2% +$12
world 2% −$63
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$18
economics 1% −$48
weather 0% −$15
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 6¢ $88 56m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 4¢ $10 59m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $956 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 19¢ $32 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $51 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $21 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $92 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $102 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $51 26h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 1¢ $1 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 8¢ $23 27h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 38¢ $24 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 23¢ $19 27h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 28¢ $20 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $51 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 27¢ $20 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $15 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $20 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 29¢ $6 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE 14¢ $31 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 17¢ $20 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 28¢ $26 28h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 15¢ $31 29h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.2% -43.2% 14% 14% +42.0%
≤30d 42 -24.4% -31.6% 21% 19% -51.3%
≤90d 62 -29.4% -36.1% 26% 23% -50.0%
all 167 -28.6% -35.4% 20% 19% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 19% -48.0%
10% -41.6% 17% -53.0%
15% -47.2% 16% -57.5%
20% -52.4% 15% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.85 · official $435.85 · 531 history records