trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40¢ | 48¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+19%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 57¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 56¢ | $5 | $6 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 14¢ | $6 | $5 | −$1 (-10%) |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $2 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$5 | +108% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 11 | $7 | +$6 | +85% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | Jun 09 | $68 | +$13 | +18% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $14 | +$6 | +43% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $32 | +$11 | +33% |
| Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference? | May 27 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $22 | −$10 | -43% |
| Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 25 | $20 | −$13 | -63% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | May 18 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $44 | +$16 | +35% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 14 | $5 | −$2 | -36% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 09 | $20 | +$5 | +24% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | May 01 | $40 | +$28 | +69% |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? | Apr 30 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? | Apr 29 | $10 | −$9 | -88% |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | Apr 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by April 30, | Apr 21 | $20 | +$15 | +74% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Apr 19 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +51.3% | +36.9% | 75% | 75% | +13.7% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +6.3% | -3.8% | 58% | 50% | -0.3% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 63% | 53% | +4.0% |
| all | 19 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 63% | 53% | +4.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.9% | 53% | +4.0% |
| 10% | -14.9% | 42% | -6.0% |
| 15% | -23.2% | 26% | -15.0% |
| 20% | -30.7% | 21% | -23.4% |