Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7d95…d78b politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$2
other 35% $0
world 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 04 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 13h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 16d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 29d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $112 35d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 43d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $113 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $114 59d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $114 63d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $114 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $114 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $114 66d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 70d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 70d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 73d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 74d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $114 83d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 83d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 91d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 91d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $114 92d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $114 92d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 99¢ $114 96d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $115 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records