Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d93…fdef crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day59.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 55% -0.0%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 55% -0.0%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 55% -0.0%
all 11 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 55% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 55% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 45% -9.6%
15% -26.1% 18% -18.3%
20% -33.3% 9% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$34 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $110 +$33 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $206 +$127 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $177 +$59 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $48 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $731 −$119 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $285 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $97 +$46 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $253 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $139 +$33 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $43 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $36 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $35 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $333 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records