Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7d93…98bb politics 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$955 (+1%) realized +$955 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 140L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,046per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$966
politics 34% −$77
sports 12% +$90
economics 3% −$5
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$45
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +1.1% -8.6% 9% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 84 +1.2% -8.5% 6% 4% -8.8%
all 169 +1.7% -8.0% 17% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 10% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 9% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 8% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,405) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$7 · ×9.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$955
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,046
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $368 $368 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $249 $249 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $344 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $2,008 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,775 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,008 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,160 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $776 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,224 −$2 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $44 +$62 +140%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,335 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $482 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $431 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,803 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,211 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $64 +$58 +90%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,104 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,769 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,004 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $249 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $439 2h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $440 6h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $344 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $344 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $398 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $399 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $351 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $352 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $390 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $391 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $380 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $381 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $313 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $314 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $842 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $741 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $742 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $795 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $796 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $871 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $719 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.15 · official $616.15 (match) · 570 history records