Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7d93…2397 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$13
politics 29% −$9
sports 13% +$24
tech 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 134 +2.0% -7.7% 8% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×11.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage129d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $337 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $440 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $292 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $187 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $334 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $286 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $191 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $807 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 42h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 42h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $161 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $161 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $184 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $184 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 27d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $157 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $157 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $146 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $146 31d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $155 31d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $155 32d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 32d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 33d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $175 33d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $175 34d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $161 34d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $161 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $197 35d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $197 38d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 38d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records