Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d92…4c7a sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,231 (-9%) realized −$1,231 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%57W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$526
7 days−$654
14 days−$9
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$22
other 35% −$180
crypto 4% −$5
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +12.6% +1.8% 37% 36% -15.1%
≤30d 139 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 38% -10.3%
≤90d 139 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 38% -10.3%
all 139 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 38% -10.3%
10% -8.3% 38% -18.9%
15% -17.1% 35% -26.7%
20% -25.3% 30% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$72 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses57 / 82
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 169
History coverage16d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $10 +$81 +794%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$126 +124%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 +$73 +238%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,164 −$1,152 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $304 +$196 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $204 +$364 +178%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $31 +$118 +384%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,092 −$1,069 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$35 +35%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $405 −$400 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $107 −$90 -84%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $202 +$94 +47%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $61 +$58 +95%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $51 −$51 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $132 +$286 +217%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $29 −$29 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$56 +111%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$46 +223%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$42 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $10 51m
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND DR Congo vs. BUY $50 12h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Algeria vs. BUY $26 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,164 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $21 25h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 82¢ $16 31h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 39¢ $149 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY $10 38h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $101 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $41 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes $21 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 41h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $204 41h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 41h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes $31 41h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Egypt (-1 BUY $5 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1,092 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $57 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $136 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 59¢ $405 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records