Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d92…6761 other 613 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$546 (-0%) realized −$547 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate73%449W / 163L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$204
14 days−$731
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$125
crypto 9% +$3
sports 5% −$710
tech 4% −$6
weather 2% +$15
culture 1% +$2
politics 1% −$48
world 0% −$50
finance 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -0.4% -9.9% 37% 32% -14.9%
≤30d 181 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 25% -16.1%
≤90d 308 -3.3% -12.5% 65% 18% -11.6%
all 612 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 7% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 5% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$547
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses449 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)612 / 613
History coverage192d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 59¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$18 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $16 +$15 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 +$16 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$3 -24%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +183%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $19 +$29 +156%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $53 −$2 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $42 −$2 -4%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $44 −$2 -4%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$2 -4%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Kudermetova vs Kraus Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$10 -26%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$9 -18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 −$3 -7%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $30 $0 -2%
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $60 +$31 +52%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $49 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham Open: Janice Tjen vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 14 $16 $0 -1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 16h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 37h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.49 (match) · 1931 history records