Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d91…f6da sports 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$403 (-14%) realized −$447 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$308
finance 14% −$430
crypto 14% −$120
world 6% −$2
other 5% −$140
tech 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +28.6% +16.3% 31% 31% -14.7%
≤30d 91 +28.6% +16.3% 31% 31% -14.7%
≤90d 100 +23.4% +11.6% 31% 28% -23.5%
all 101 +23.2% +11.5% 32% 28% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 28% -23.0%
10% +0.8% 28% -30.3%
15% -8.9% 28% -37.1%
20% -17.9% 28% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$26 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 69
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage123d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 72¢ $14 $58 +$44 (+326%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$31 +151%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$24 +118%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$34 +168%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 +$51 +416%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 +$28 +232%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$25 +122%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$25 +122%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$27 +130%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 +$44 +356%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$36 +176%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $430 −$430 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$72 +353%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$26 +127%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$27 +132%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 55¢ $20 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 90¢ $40 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $20 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $20 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 95¢ $39 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $12 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 89¢ $17 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 82¢ $25 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $18 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 95¢ $58 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $12 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $12 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $12 27h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $12 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $12 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $12 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $12 30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 30h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $20 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 33h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.38 · official $91.39 · 235 history records