Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8f…1981 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$47 (+11%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$47
other 33% $0
politics 15% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 36 +3.4% -6.4% 6% 3% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 3% +0.4%
10% -15.4% 3% -9.2%
15% -23.6% 3% -18.0%
20% -31.1% 3% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$0 · ×1467.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×117.41 per $1 lost it wins $117.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage546d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Oct 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jul 18 $1 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jul 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 26 $0 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Bulls Mar 28 $22 +$47 +212%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $4 $0 -2%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $6 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Jan 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 17 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 62d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 62d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 63d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 63d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 84d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 84d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $12 98d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $12 98d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 122d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 122d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 147d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 147d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 184d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 184d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 218d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 218d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $12 236d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $12 236d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 267d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 269d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 294d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 294d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 307d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 307d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $6 331d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $6 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records