Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8d…010b weather 97 markets active 4h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized −$22 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$25
14 days−$20
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$52
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 36% -16.8%
≤30d 51 -2.8% -12.0% 61% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 96 -12.6% -21.0% 46% 31% -17.3%
all 96 -12.6% -21.0% 46% 31% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 31% -17.3%
10% -28.5% 19% -25.2%
15% -35.4% 16% -32.5%
20% -41.8% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 56¢ 26¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$13 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 06 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +189%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 18? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24? May 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $14 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $16 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $6 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $8 42h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 42h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $43 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.21 · official $9.45 · 241 history records