Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d8b…c6ff other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$13
world 17% −$16
sports 15% +$39
crypto 7% −$45
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 39% -9.5%
≤30d 42 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 29% -13.7%
≤90d 42 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 29% -13.7%
all 42 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 29% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 29% -13.7%
10% -28.3% 24% -21.9%
15% -35.2% 12% -29.5%
20% -41.5% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage24d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $53 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$2 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$16 +197%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$13 -70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 +$13 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -74%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$7 +58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $24 −$14 -61%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $23 +$31 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 -8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 96¢ $53 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? SELL No 100¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 96¢ $50 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 0¢ $0 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 1¢ $0 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 13¢ $1 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $24 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $31 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $43 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $6 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records