Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d82…c734 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$284 (-40%) realized −$295 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$266
sports 7% +$9
crypto 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-85.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -83.6% -85.1% 10% 10% -67.2%
≤30d 10 -83.6% -85.1% 10% 10% -67.2%
≤90d 10 -83.6% -85.1% 10% 10% -67.2%
all 10 -83.6% -85.1% 10% 10% -67.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.1% 10% -67.2%
10% -86.6% 10% -70.3%
15% -87.9% 10% -73.2%
20% -89.0% 10% -75.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$39 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+9%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $213 −$210 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 14h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.18 · official $256.18 (match) · 21 history records