Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7d82…0d44 sports 292 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,231 (+5%) realized +$1,256 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%158W / 127L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$664
7 days−$3,320
14 days−$3,074
30 days−$3,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$488
other 25% +$606
world 1% +$27
crypto 0% +$40
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -53.2% -57.6% 28% 27% -41.3%
≤30d 111 -50.0% -54.7% 30% 29% -37.0%
≤90d 135 -31.7% -38.2% 41% 40% -25.6%
all 285 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 53% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 53% -5.3%
10% -20.6% 45% -14.4%
15% -28.3% 40% -22.6%
20% -35.3% 27% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$50 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$1,256
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses158 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)285 / 292
History coverage150d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $105 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 56¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 58¢ $117 $99 −$19 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $130 +$70 +54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $110 +$60 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $107 +$93 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $207 +$113 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $55 +$35 +64%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $110 +$60 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $107 +$93 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$65 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $107 +$33 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $109 −$108 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $161 +$169 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $113 +$67 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $159 +$91 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $53 −$45 -85%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$115 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 +$95 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 +$116 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $107 +$63 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $310 −$308 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$84 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 +$55 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $58 +$42 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $104 +$56 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$68 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $57 +$23 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$30 +98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Valencia Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Olimpia Milano vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-01-24? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Jun 15 $175 +$19 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 4 Winner Jun 15 $612 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Monaco Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $107 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $104 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $153 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $118 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $107 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $57 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $54 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $90 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $19 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $41 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $55 29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $110 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $110 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $207 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $109 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $107 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $107 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 4¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $53 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $161 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $113 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $159 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $105 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $305 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.22 · official $672.45 · 763 history records